tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-197066472024-03-13T06:35:10.691-04:00Hurricane & Tornado ClimateJames Elsnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02586522288616135639noreply@blogger.comBlogger80125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-12617866523153464242014-02-06T17:29:00.000-05:002014-02-06T20:23:17.783-05:00Tornado frequency power law
Daily tornado frequency distributions in the United States, James Elsner, Thomas Jagger, Holly Widen and Daniel Chavas, Scheduled for publication in Environmental Research Letters, February 2014.
The script was modified from the write-up by Kate Ravilious from an e-mail interview I had with her.
James Elsnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02586522288616135639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-24854793756624442622013-11-09T20:27:00.002-05:002013-11-09T20:27:48.561-05:00Seasonal forecast model for tornado chasers
In this study we consider tornadoes only within a region centered on Russell, Kansas, as defined in Elsner
et al. (2013). The region stretches across the central
Great Plains from northern Texas to central Nebraska
and is bounded by 36.108 and 41.578N latitudes and
102.378 and 95.348W longitudes. This is an area with
a high concentration of tornadoes and where James Elsnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02586522288616135639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-72587355800936538302013-08-25T07:08:00.002-04:002013-08-25T07:08:53.315-04:00Total Area Covered by Tornadoes by Year in the United States
Estimated annual total area (path length x path width) of all U.S. tornadoes from 1950 through 2011.
The area is represented by a disc centered on Oklahoma City.
Data are from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.
R code to reproduce the analysis is provided here.
James Elsnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02586522288616135639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-67548377826275041712013-07-24T13:33:00.000-04:002013-07-24T13:33:14.760-04:00
Download poster: http://myweb.fsu.edu/jelsner/afisa_1st_Tornadoes.pdf
James Elsnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02586522288616135639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-76775257616921688402013-07-19T12:19:00.003-04:002013-07-19T12:19:29.965-04:00Per Tornado Day Mean Tornado Path Length and Width (m)
<!-- MotionChart generated in R 3.0.1 by googleVis 0.4.3 package -->
<!-- Fri Jul 19 12:08:19 2013 -->
<!-- jsHeader -->
// jsData
function gvisDataMotionChartID41065ff7e178 () {
var data = new google.visualization.DataTable();
var datajson =
[
[
"3",
new Date(1994,2,27),
57399.79333,
1995.2208,
122559110
],
[
"4",
new Date(1994,2,27),
79662.33,
1207.008,
95829321.9
],
[
"1",
James Elsnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02586522288616135639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-34191260901325726112013-07-15T21:33:00.001-04:002013-07-15T21:44:52.597-04:00Mean tornado path length (m) and path width (m) by (E)F scale
<!-- MotionChart generated in R 3.0.1 by googleVis 0.4.3 package -->
<!-- Mon Jul 15 21:25:39 2013 -->
<!-- jsHeader -->
// jsData
function gvisDataMotionChartID41065d29ff37 () {
var data = new google.visualization.DataTable();
var datajson =
[
[
"1",
1950,
6119.369928,
72.39183614,
472001.4656
],
[
"2",
1950,
11038.17906,
117.4331647,
1470978.879
],
[
"3",
1950,
20311.21192,
James Elsnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02586522288616135639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-577184552484064252013-07-14T15:48:00.004-04:002013-07-14T16:31:19.482-04:001st International Summit on Tornadoes & Climate Change
Where: Minoa Palace, Crete, Greece http://www.minoapalace.gr/
When: May 25-30, 2014
Why: Bring together for the first time the tornado and climate change research communities
Why Greece? The Aegean Conferences will sponsor and host it. Overlooking the tranquil waters of the Aegean Sea is a great place to discuss what might at times be a contentious topic.
Description:
Societal interestJames Elsnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02586522288616135639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-42428267028322126822013-06-01T14:42:00.001-04:002013-06-01T14:46:51.744-04:004th International Summit on Hurricanes & Climate Change: June 13-18, 2013, Kos, GREECEJames Elsnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02586522288616135639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-42500452681308245662013-05-08T11:40:00.000-04:002013-05-08T11:40:08.964-04:00Predicting spring tornado activity in the Central Great Plains by March 1st
Here we illustrate a statistical model for predicting tornado activity in the central Plains by March 1st. The model predicts the number of tornado reports during April--June using February sea-surface temperature (SST) data from the Gulf of Alaska (GAK) and the western Caribbean region (WCA). The model uses a Bayesian formulation where the likelihood on the counts is a negative James Elsnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02586522288616135639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-7233472292515747182013-04-04T15:30:00.000-04:002013-04-04T15:32:16.765-04:00Predicting the distribution of violent tornadoes
Here we illustrate a statistical point process model that uses the spatial occurrence of non-violent tornadoes to predict the distribution of the rare, violent tornadoes during springtime across the U.S. central Great Plains. The average rate of non-violent tornadoes is 55 per 10000 square km per 62 years which compares with an average rate of only 1.5 violent tornadoes per 10000 square&James Elsnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02586522288616135639noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-72080797447546308692013-03-07T13:27:00.000-05:002013-03-07T13:27:04.227-05:00Hurricane Climatology: A Modern Statistical Guide Using R
Our newest book is now available. Our website provides the code used to produce all the figures. Learn to code. Enjoy!
James Elsnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02586522288616135639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-47843730185010571382013-03-05T10:57:00.003-05:002013-04-04T15:31:24.128-04:00Decreasing Population Bias in Tornado Reports
<!--StartFragment-->Tornado-hazard assessment is hampered by a population bias in the available data. We demonstrate a way to statistically quantify this bias using the ratio of city to country report densities. The expected report densities come from a model of the number of reports as a function of distance from nearest city center. On average since 1950 reports near cities with James Elsnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02586522288616135639noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-90001508699434281752012-12-30T08:33:00.001-05:002012-12-30T08:33:45.571-05:00Consensus on Climate Trends in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones
Research on trends in western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) activity is limited by problems associated with different wind speed conversions used by the various meteorological agencies. Here we use a quantile method to effectively overcome this conversion problem. Following the assumption that the intensity ranks of TCs are the same among agencies, quantiles at the James Elsnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02586522288616135639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-74440974338645856312012-11-16T08:29:00.000-05:002012-11-16T08:31:52.146-05:00The Spatial Pattern of the Sun-Hurricane Connection
We define the spatial response of hurricanes to extremes in the solar cycle. Using an equal-area hexagon tessellation, regional hurricane counts are examined during the period 1851–2010. The response features fewer hurricanes across the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and along the eastern seaboard of the United States when sunspots are numerous. In contrast fewer hurricanes are observed in the James Elsnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02586522288616135639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-44085395036525026222012-11-01T10:51:00.003-04:002012-11-16T08:29:58.465-05:00Hurricane Sandy and climate change
While the SSTs did not cause Sandy to curve into New Jersey, they quite likely caused Sandy to be stronger. Our new research shows that the limiting intensity of hurricanes (how strong hurricanes can get as a statistical limit) relates to SST at about 8 m/s/C. With SSTs in the path of Sandy that were 2-3 C warmer than is typical, we would predict a strong hurricane to be twice asJames Elsnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02586522288616135639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-24309536474836468502012-08-03T12:56:00.001-04:002012-08-03T12:58:18.903-04:00Maximum wind speeds and U.S. hurricane losses
There is academic, commercial, and public interest in estimating loss from hurricanes striking land and understanding how loss might change as a result of future variations in climate. We show in a paper in to be published in Geophysical Research Letters that the relationship between wind speed and loss is exponential and that loss increases with wind speed at a rate of 5% James Elsnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02586522288616135639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-21262581582661152732012-07-12T19:32:00.000-04:002012-07-17T07:03:14.535-04:00Chasing storms
As part of the undergraduate course, "Chasing Storms," I took four volunteer students on an actual chase. We embarked on a week-long storm chasing expedition in the Great Plains.James Elsnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02586522288616135639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-17103688415726485742012-06-20T14:58:00.000-04:002012-07-01T23:28:02.431-04:00Harvesting video
It's difficult to get a precise measurement of tornado wind speed without actually going inside one. Armed with Blender's new motion tacking features, Ian Elsner tries to fix that.James Elsnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02586522288616135639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-41125310876766849292012-05-08T19:28:00.001-04:002012-05-08T19:34:49.350-04:00Sensitivity of hurricane intensity to ocean warmth
The strongest hurricanes are getting stronger as the oceans heat up especially over the North Atlantic. Sensitivity of hurricane intensity to ocean heating is an important variable for understanding what hurricanes might be like in the future, but reliable estimates are not possible with short time-series records. Studies using paired values of intensity and sea-surface temperature (SST) are James Elsnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02586522288616135639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-46508865119639082202011-09-18T19:47:00.004-04:002011-09-18T20:01:18.877-04:00What is Hurricane Climatology?.prezi-player { width: 450px; } .prezi-player-links { text-align: center; } No description " href="http://prezi.com/t6jb8zl4yckv/hurricane-climatology/">Hurricane Climatology on PreziJames Elsnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02586522288616135639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-44203803907599794912011-09-09T08:04:00.003-04:002011-09-09T08:07:57.386-04:003rd International Summit TalksTalks given at the 3rd International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change are now available at http://ciquestudios.com/hurricaneclimate/. Enjoy.James Elsnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02586522288616135639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-33615687638222678102011-07-09T05:56:00.004-04:002011-07-09T06:02:40.137-04:00Summit summaryStatistical models of regional and clustered tropical cyclone (TC) activity are being developed and tested. High resolution and detailed microphysical models are capable of physically realistic models of TC behavior. General circulation models are still poor at resolving the frequency and intensity of TCs on the inter-annual time scale. There seems to be little, if any, correlation between the James Elsnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02586522288616135639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-71100609721064636532011-06-18T12:57:00.003-04:002011-06-18T13:24:47.082-04:003rd International Summit on Hurricanes & Climate ChangeJune 27-July 2, 2011, Rhodes, GREECE. It promises to be a good one. Check out the program. Props go to Ian Elsner for designing and editing the video.James Elsnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02586522288616135639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-87243122278592983812011-06-17T11:52:00.002-04:002011-06-17T12:13:43.997-04:00Crazy guys yelling at a tornado While hot air swirls on whether climate change is affecting tornadoes, I take a break on May 24, 2011 to chase down a few storms in Oklahoma with my son Ian and his friend Nic Parsons.James Elsnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02586522288616135639noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-69442208736578834832011-06-13T14:18:00.003-04:002011-06-13T14:27:52.588-04:00Hurricane clusters in the vicinity of FloridaModels that predict annual U.S. hurricane activity assume a Poisson distribution for the counts. This assumption leads to a forecast that under predicts both the number of years without hurricanes and the number of years with three or more Florida hurricanes. The under dispersion in forecast counts arises from a tendency for hurricanes to arrive in groups along this part of the U.S. coastline. James Elsnerhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02586522288616135639noreply@blogger.com0