tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-197066472012-01-29T16:35:00.708-05:00James Elsnernoreply@blogger.comBlogger611100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-46508865119639082202011-09-18T19:47:00.004-04:002011-09-18T20:01:18.877-04:00

.prezi-player { width: 450px; } .prezi-player-links { text-align: center; } No description " href="http://prezi.com/t6jb8zl4yckv/hurricane-climatology/">Hurricane Climatology on Prezi

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-44203803907599794912011-09-09T08:04:00.003-04:002011-09-09T08:07:57.386-04:00

Talks given at the 3rd International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change are now available at http://ciquestudios.com/hurricaneclimate/. Enjoy.

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-33615687638222678102011-07-09T05:56:00.004-04:002011-07-09T06:02:40.137-04:00

Statistical models of regional and clustered tropical cyclone (TC) activity are being developed and tested. High resolution and detailed microphysical models are capable of physically realistic models of TC behavior. General circulation models are still poor at resolving the frequency and intensity of TCs on the inter-annual time scale. There seems to be little, if any, correlation between the

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-71100609721064636532011-06-18T12:57:00.003-04:002011-06-18T13:24:47.082-04:00

June 27-July 2, 2011, Rhodes, GREECE. It promises to be a good one. Check out the program. Props go to Ian Elsner for designing and editing the video.

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-87243122278592983812011-06-17T11:52:00.002-04:002011-06-17T12:13:43.997-04:00

While hot air swirls on whether climate change is affecting tornadoes, I take a break on May 24, 2011 to chase down a few storms in Oklahoma with my son Ian and his friend Nic Parsons.

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-69442208736578834832011-06-13T14:18:00.003-04:002011-06-13T14:27:52.588-04:00

Models that predict annual U.S. hurricane activity assume a Poisson distribution for the counts. This assumption leads to a forecast that under predicts both the number of years without hurricanes and the number of years with three or more Florida hurricanes. The under dispersion in forecast counts arises from a tendency for hurricanes to arrive in groups along this part of the U.S. coastline.

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-78949575767065388452011-03-10T14:32:00.006-05:002011-03-10T14:48:44.244-05:00

In collaboration with Gabriele Villarini and as part of the U.S. CLIVAR working group on hurricanes, I've written a short summary paper on statistical models for tropical cyclone activity. The paper is available here. The data for the R code are available here. The document was created using Sweave, LaTeX and R. The work is part of a larger project to publish a book on this topic with Oxford

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-19442816675761751252011-02-25T08:22:00.004-05:002011-02-25T08:32:18.737-05:00

Over the past several years the topic of hurricanes and climate change has received considerable attention by scientists, the insurance industry, and the media. Building on the successful 1st and 2nd Summits, I am organizing the 3rd Summit to be held June 27-July 2, 2011 in Rhodes, Greece. The purpose is to bring together leading academics and researchers on various sides of the debate

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-52771697561713488382011-02-09T08:27:00.007-05:002011-02-09T15:58:37.273-05:00

We demonstrate a new framework for studying hurricane climatology. The framework consists of a spatial tessellation of the hurricane basin using equal-area hexagons. The hexagons are efficient in covering hurricane tracks and provide a scaffolding to combine attribute data from tropical cyclones with spatial climate data. The framework's utility is demonstrated using examples from recent

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-64883761163690839962011-01-28T21:21:00.004-05:002011-01-28T21:27:10.554-05:00

In my talk this week to the West Florida chapter of the American Meteorological Society I make a case that geographers are well positioned to lead a new revolution in hurricane climate research. Watch here.

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-21478655293630856122011-01-14T07:17:00.005-05:002011-01-14T07:54:52.447-05:00

Tiny threatened shorebirds on Florida’s west coast not only survive hurricanes, they seem to benefit from the storms’ aftereffects, according to new research findings that contradict conventional wisdom.The findings could have implications for beach nourishment efforts throughout the world and how they affect wildlife.---Mickie Anderson, UF media relations. Read more. Photo credit: Western Snowy

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-60369550323898199192010-10-06T08:45:00.001-04:002010-10-06T08:49:24.513-04:00

Two professors from Louisiana State University, each having had personal experiences with hurricanes and extreme weather and each with a deep interest in weather and climate, join forces to highlight tropical storms and hurricanes that have affected the Gulf of Mexico over the past 100 to 150 years. They aim to provide a description of the climatology and history of the most notorious hurricanes

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-83508377448745629712010-09-28T20:48:00.003-04:002010-09-28T20:52:05.480-04:00

Applied spatial data analysis using R. Thomas Jagger will discuss packages used by Roger Bivand et al. in his book Applied Spatial Data Analysis with R. If you're in the area, consider joining the R-uckus.http://www.meetup.com/DenverRUG/calendar/14863343/

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-76019507105793006422010-08-30T08:26:00.007-04:002010-08-30T08:40:13.650-04:00

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-62731387526947601082010-06-12T21:48:00.002-04:002010-06-12T21:50:16.231-04:00

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-82001208283201805312010-05-05T10:48:00.008-04:002010-06-12T21:47:32.074-04:00

An inverse relationship between hurricane activity over the Caribbean and the number of sunspots has recently been identified. Here we investigate this relationship using daily observations and find support for the hypothesis that changes in ultraviolet (UV) radiation are the cause. The relationship is statistically significant after accounting for annual variation in ocean heat and the El Nino

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-61177967430001373212010-05-01T15:28:00.006-04:002010-05-07T09:34:36.688-04:00

The oil slick over the northern Gulf of Mexico will reflect more incoming sunlight so will warm slower than the surrounding ocean. If this delayed warming continues into the hurricane season, then a tropical cyclone that visits the region might have slightly weaker winds. Reduced water evaporation from any remaining oil film at the time of the hurricane will contribute to the decrease in

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-34255483121657662852010-04-30T09:32:00.005-04:002010-11-15T09:29:55.145-05:00

Today 20% of the strongest cyclones exceed 49 m/s on average globally. With a 1C rise in SST, 20% of the strongest cyclones could exceed 51 m/s according to Elsner et al. (2008). Thus the 80th percentile increases from 49 to 51 m/s. Today, on average, 17 cyclones/yr exceed 49 m/s and 13 exceed 51 m/s. If 51 m/s is the new 80th percentile (after a 1C warming) then, without a change in the

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-69988827834105229682010-03-31T07:41:00.003-04:002010-08-30T08:44:23.887-04:00

The 3rd International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change will be held next summer in Rhodes, Greece. The dates are set for June 27-July 2, 2011 at the Sheraton. Please join us.

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-28118828532076052572010-03-01T17:51:00.005-05:002010-03-19T11:40:55.737-04:00

The strongest Atlantic hurricanes are getting stronger as ocean temperatures warm (Elsner et al. 2008) and the strengthening is expected to continue (Knutson et al. 2010). However, along the U.S. coast the intensity of hurricanes has not gone up and there is considerable debate about potential future damage losses from these catastrophic events. Here we model the historical damage losses and

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-53845208657256467052010-02-18T11:09:00.003-05:002010-02-18T11:16:49.341-05:00

The record of past tropical cyclones provides an important means to evaluate the hurricane hazard. Historical chronologies are a source of information about tropical cyclones prior to the modern era. Chenoweth (2006) describes an archive of 383 tropical cyclones occurring during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, largely before the official hurricane record. We demonstrate a novel way this

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-16838781215456461942009-12-15T18:08:00.010-05:002010-12-08T08:07:48.659-05:00

A month after hackers broke into the CRU email server and released to the web email (it could have been a leak) correspondences between top climate researchers, what it all means is still being sorted. It apparently had little influence on the Copenhagen Summit as world leaders had momentum going in as well as other issues to sift through.It is tempting to see the affair (dubbed climategate) as

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-22550450889465545732009-11-23T21:10:00.007-05:002009-12-03T19:02:44.728-05:00

Foundational pillars of science include transparency and reproducibility. Unfortunately too few climatologists take advantage of the powerful R language for statistical computing. It's a shame because it makes developing, maintaining and documenting code easy, thus facilitating replication. As an example see our blog entry for July 5th 2008 on how to use quantile regression to quantify the

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-26602177241391663462009-11-22T15:31:00.003-05:002009-11-22T15:37:05.565-05:00

Imagine an insurer of coastal properties concerned about the next hurricane season. A severe storm happens once every few decades; if the severe storm hits this year, she’ll have to pay out most of her money in claims. To help remain solvent, she could buy reinsurance. Alternatively, she could issue a catastrophe (cat) bond, which would pass the risk on to an investor. An investor could buy the

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-24791203695848609562009-09-26T13:46:00.002-04:002009-09-26T13:59:58.135-04:00

Back in the middle 1990's I had the great fortune to work with and help mentor A. Birol Kara. Birol was a graduate student in meteorology when he approached me and asked if I needed help with a book project I was starting. I quickly put him to work drafting figures. It was clear from the start that Birol was a remarkable student. He approached his work with the utmost care and from a deep

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-10532520935323928332009-08-18T10:26:00.004-04:002009-08-27T18:28:21.758-04:00

The recent and on-going events in the world's financial markets demonstrate that finance theory remains far from perfected. Meanwhile, the threat of natural disasters continues to increase due to population growth, economic development, climate changes, geologic activity, and political unrest. To better understand and predict natural disasters and their consequences research and training are

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-32310269744992107232009-08-07T15:22:00.008-04:002009-08-18T10:25:56.381-04:00

Recently we used networks to examine year-to-year relationships in hurricane activity. This requires mapping the time series of hurricane counts onto a network. In this way the network is physically related to the variation of hurricanes from one year to the next. This idea is relatively new and was introduced by Lacasa et al. [2008]. By doing this we address the following two questions: How

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-3494592781281447312009-06-11T11:55:00.014-04:002009-06-21T17:26:59.314-04:00

The 2nd International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change was held May 31-Jun 5th in Corfu, Greece. Judging by the level of science and by the participants enthusiasm for doing it again, the Summit was an overwhelming success. There were participants from 17 countries. The relative frequency of participants by country is plotted as a word cloud (using wordle). There were 25 participants

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-48466952761067004252009-05-26T10:06:00.003-04:002009-05-26T10:28:07.702-04:00

The 2nd International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change takes place in Corfu starting next Monday. We will archive podcasts of the talks here. The speaker list includes:June 1Session 1: M Chenoweth, K Walsh, JL McBride, F Chauvin, R RomeroSession 2: JB Elsner, JD Woodruff, AV Fedorov, K OouchiJune 2Session 3: RE Hart, B Soden, ME Mann, A Khain, J DoneSession 4: GJ Holland, YM Tourre, JP

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-69175473274000332882009-05-19T22:11:00.003-04:002009-05-19T22:15:20.206-04:00

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-46610102635695644392009-04-08T17:46:00.003-04:002009-04-08T18:00:31.193-04:00

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-71483611066285303862009-02-25T07:18:00.003-05:002009-02-25T07:59:53.917-05:00

Our paper entitled: "The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones" published last September in Nature (henceforth EKJ08) garnered considerable attention in the scientific community. Here are replies to some of the comments we received about this work.Comment: "If the total number of storms has not changed, and the number of strong storms has increased from 13 to 17, then surely

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-91329526208187877102009-01-19T20:32:00.002-05:002009-01-19T20:47:15.374-05:00

I was one of the fortunate few who had Noel as a mentor. Here are a few of his research papers. He will be missed. Improving Seasonal Hurricane Predictions for the Atlantic Basin (1995)A Measurement of the Velocity Field of a Cumulus Cloud (1973)A Low-Level Jet in the Tropics (1971)A Study of the Rainfall Patterns and Some Related Features in a Dissipating Hurricane (1957)A Study of

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-49345114251638204022009-01-10T18:48:00.006-05:002009-01-10T19:36:38.535-05:00

The 2009 addition of the American Meteorological Society's annual meeting is being held here in Phoenix, Arizona. I am one of the instructors for a short course on the topic of statistics and extreme events. The Use R for Climate Research tutorial that I use for the course is available here.Download R here and work through the tutorial by copying and pasting the code into an R session. Feel

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-61080517403800912812008-12-10T08:23:00.005-05:002008-12-10T08:49:42.631-05:00

Springer has announced the availability of a proceedings volume of the 1st International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change titled: Hurricanes and Climate Change edited by myself and Thomas Jagger. The volume is available from Springer.A 4-day international summit on hurricanes and climate change took place in 2007 to discuss and debate various scientific issues related to this important

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-69508435204036433352008-11-26T19:04:00.003-05:002008-11-26T19:12:15.980-05:00

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-10934749726109177662008-11-14T15:57:00.004-05:002008-12-10T08:46:13.555-05:00

Over the past several years the topic of hurricanes and climate change has received considerable attention by scientists, the insurance industry, and the media. Building on the successful inaugural summit on the topic of hurricanes and climate change held during the spring of 2007, we are organizing the second summit scheduled for May 31-Jun 5, 2009 in Corfu, Greece. The purpose is to bring

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-24668912731262880652008-10-27T16:50:00.005-04:002008-10-27T17:02:10.559-04:00

The figure is a thumbnail sketch of our research efforts over the past 15 years in the area of Atlantic hurricane climate. The top row is the feature of hurricane activity that we've studied, the middle row is the statistical or empirical model that we've used to study the feature, and the third row is a headline of our principal finding. The time axis provides a chronology for our efforts to

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-40074129613602681982008-09-07T10:08:00.006-04:002008-10-18T14:27:06.077-04:00

In our paper "The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones" Nature, v455, 92-95, Figure 2b is incorrect. The correct figure is given here. The quantile values are labeled correctly on the original figure and the corresponding trend values in Table 1 are correct.

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-26168435700098714242008-08-22T07:45:00.007-04:002008-08-22T08:13:45.628-04:00

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-53105060277990392092008-07-05T19:16:00.010-04:002009-01-11T14:36:09.457-05:00

IntroductionQuantile regression extends ordinary least-squares regression to quantiles of the response variable. Ordinary regression is a model for the conditional mean, where the mean is conditional on the value of the explanatory variable. Likewise, quantile regression is a model for the conditional quantiles. For trend analysis the explanatory variable is time. Quantiles are points taken at

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-10941504428540217112008-06-20T09:30:00.000-04:002008-06-20T09:31:44.638-04:00

Named after a Caribbean god of maleficence, the hurricane is an awesome, yet deadly and destructive natural phenomenon of the Earth's occasionally tumultuous atmosphere. Labeled a typhoon in the Pacific Ocean west of the International Dateline and a cyclone over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, a hurricane is powered by the heat and moisture of the tropics rather than temperature differences

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-91205585576104772472008-04-24T09:15:00.008-04:002008-04-24T09:34:42.436-04:00

Coastal tropical cyclones (TCs) pose a serious threat to society and the economy. Strong winds, heavy rainfall, and storm surge kill people and destroy property. The destructive power of the most intense TCs can rival that of earthquakes. The rarity of intense TCs implies that empirical estimates of their return periods will be unreliable. Fortunately extreme value theory provides parametric

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-24773823985660724982008-01-06T10:29:00.000-05:002008-01-06T17:38:37.723-05:00

Climate research is greatly facilitated with access to a powerful environment for statistical computing. R is an open-source statistical environment modeled after S and S-Plus. The S language was developed in the late 1980s at AT&T labs. The R project was started by Robert Gentleman and Ross Ihaka of the Statistics Department of the University of Auckland in 1995. It now has a large audience.

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-39534347812791025712007-11-11T12:25:00.000-05:002007-11-11T12:38:37.105-05:00

The recent increase in the power of Atlantic tropical cyclones is attributable to greater oceanic warmth in part due to anthropogenic increases in radiative forcing from greenhouse gases. However solar activity can influence a hurricane's power as well through changes in upper tropospheric temperature. Here we report on a finding that annual U.S hurricane counts are significantly related to

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-56199845639143018632007-11-03T03:01:00.000-04:002008-12-12T21:26:04.521-05:00

Relationships of hurricanes affecting the United States can be examined using the methods of network analysis. Network analysis has been used in a variety of fields to examine relational data, but has yet to be used in the study of hurricane climatology. A single hurricane can affect more than one coastal region. This can happen when the regions are small relative to the hurricane size, when

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-26118342904284493672007-08-26T16:38:00.001-04:002008-06-20T09:41:34.897-04:00

Hurricanes cause drastic social problems as well as generate huge economic losses. A reliable forecast of the level of hurricane activity covering the next several seasons has the potential to mitigate against such losses through improvements in preparedness and insurance mechanisms. We develop a statistical model to predict North Atlantic hurricane activity out to five years. The algorithm

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-851833559802479212007-07-30T09:44:00.000-04:002007-08-26T17:24:28.493-04:00

Storm World: Hurricanes, Politics, and the Battle Over Global Warmingby Chris MooneyHarcourt: July 2007. 392 pp. $26[An edited version published in Nature, v448, 648, August 9, 2007]Chris Mooney’s follow-up to his The Republican War on Science (Basic Books, 2005) is a reconnaissance flight into the turbulent debate on a possible link between hurricane activity and global warming. The flight log

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-16813977211801342552007-06-07T10:57:00.000-04:002008-12-12T21:26:04.647-05:00

An International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change was held May 27-30, 2007 at the Aldemar Knossos Royal Village in Hersonissos, Crete. It was hosted by Aegean Conferences and supported by the Bermuda Institute for Ocean Sciences (BIOS) Risk Prediction Initiative and by the U.S. National Science Foundation. It was organized by myself and Richard Murnane (BIOS). There were 77 participants

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-92216764164300408312007-04-18T11:21:00.000-04:002007-04-18T11:39:48.768-04:00

In the absence of higher temporally resolved information on historical hurricanes, we develop a set of hourly-interpolated track values that can be used for hurricane climate studies. A spline interpolation is used to obtain locations and wind speeds at 1-hr intervals from the 6-hr values for all tropical cyclones in NOAA's dataset. The data set is augmented with a set of storm intensification

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-74601951539253414252007-04-16T16:22:00.000-04:002007-04-16T16:35:09.257-04:00

Hurricane risk models used by the insurance industry rely on a catalog of storms that represent the historical data in some way or another. While useful for estimating aggregate portfolio losses from a hypothetical worse case scenario, these catalogs are not easily suited for anticipating losses based on a changing climate. At the core of the catalog is a set of synthetic storms and a way to

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-19888319335757875732007-02-09T22:50:00.000-05:002007-02-10T15:56:37.697-05:00

Watch the record-setting season in motion.

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-29747871709401630382007-01-10T09:31:00.000-05:002007-02-09T21:19:00.343-05:00

Important advances are being made to understand and predict hurricane activity. On the seasonal time scale, and to a first order, we know that a warm ocean fuels storm genesis, a calm atmosphere allows storms to intensify, and the position and strength of the subtropical high pressure region paves the tracks for storms that do form. The next generation of risk modelers should incorporate this

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-30600265796551688112007-01-04T11:47:00.000-05:002007-04-16T16:38:07.958-04:00

Hurricane return levels estimated using historical and geological information are quantitatively compared for Lake Shelby, Alabama. The minimum return level of overwash events recorded in sediment cores is estimated using a modern analogue (Hurricane Ivan of 2004) to be 54 m/s (105 kt) for a return period of 318 years based on 11 events over 3500 years. The expected return level of rare

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-86262200302685622132006-12-31T09:54:00.000-05:002006-12-31T10:00:27.475-05:00

One thing I find surprising about the debate on climate change and hurricanes is the lack of discussion on the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO). Some in politics and insurance suggest greater attention be placed on understanding future hurricane activity as it relates to the United States. We've published 13 scientific papers on this topic since 2001 (here). The research identifies and

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-1166818377659375522006-12-22T14:56:00.000-05:002006-12-30T18:21:58.805-05:00

The debate on hurricanes and climate change can sometimes devolve into issues of data reliability. Unfortunately some of what is said about these issues is nonsense, or worse, self serving. As one example, during the middle 1990's, the high priest of NOAA's best-track data argued vehemently that the hurricane intensities during the 1950's and '60s were biased upward. I checked with my

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-1165242645459855302006-12-04T08:48:00.000-05:002006-12-31T09:57:12.180-05:00

The World Meteorological Organization has just released their consensus statement on tropical cyclones and climate change which mentions that because of the rapid advances being made in this area findings may be soon superceded by new results. Please consider joining us for the First International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change to hear all about the latest discoveries.

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-1145927666129903042006-04-24T21:12:00.000-04:002006-12-04T09:36:28.516-05:00

The power of Atlantic tropical cyclones has risen rather dramatically and the increase is correlated with an increase in the late summer/early fall sea-surface temperature over the North Atlantic. A debate concerns the nature of these increases with some studies attributing them to a natural climate fluctuation, known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and others suggesting climate

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-1136576035225650192006-01-06T14:32:00.000-05:002006-01-06T14:36:52.556-05:00

Hurricanes are a serious social and economic threat to theUnited States. Hurricane Katrina is a grim reminder of this fact.Recent advances allow skillful forecasts of the U.S. hurricanethreat at (or near) the start of the Atlantic hurricane season.Skillful forecasts of hurricane landfalls at longer lead times(forecast horizons) for the complete hurricane season would greatlybenefit risk managers

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-1134099403553919252005-12-08T22:35:00.000-05:002005-12-08T22:53:28.123-05:00

Hurricane Katrina is the most destructive natural disaster in U.S. history. The relative infrequency of severe coastal hurricanes implies that empirical probability estimates of the next big one will be unreliable. Here we use an extreme-value model and show that a hurricane of Katrina's intensity or stronger can be expected to occur, on average, once every 21 years somewhere along the Gulf coast

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-19706647.post-1134092148640486892005-12-08T20:32:00.001-05:002011-01-14T07:44:56.691-05:00

Hurricane climate is the study of hurricanes that includes the role climate factors play in modulating seasonal, annual, and decadal hurricane activity. Hurricane climatology is the statistics (e.g., mean number of hurricanes, maximum estimated intensity, etc.) of past hurricane activity over some reference time period. The role climate factors play in modulating hurricane activity are examined

James Elsnernoreply@blogger.com0