Summit Summary

The 2nd International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change was held May 31-Jun 5th in Corfu, Greece. Judging by the level of science and by the participants enthusiasm for doing it again, the Summit was an overwhelming success. There were participants from 17 countries. The relative frequency of participants by country is plotted as a word cloud (using wordle). There were 25 participants from the USA, 8 from Germany and China, 7 from France, 6 from Australia and Bermuda, and 5 from the UK. A word cloud illustrating the relative frequency of keywords from the participants abstract titles is also shown.





Summary points arising from the talks and discussions (with help from Rick Murnane):

1. Although there were a few skeptics, most in attendance would agree that there appears to be an upward trend in the intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones worldwide. Although there does not appear to be a trend associated with the global frequency of tropical cyclones.
2. There is a growing appreciation among the participants for a significant feedback relationship between TC activity and weather and climate events on the inter-annual time scale and on spatial scales that extend across latitudes.
3. The availability of quality archival and proxy records of hurricane activity is increasing. These data hold the potential to provide new insights into the linkages between climate variation and tropical cyclone activity.
4. The idea that Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is controlled by changes in relative sea-surface temperature rather than local sea-surface temperature was discounted on physical and statistical grounds.

The Summit was sponsored by Aegean Conferences, the Risk Prediction Initiative, and Climatek.

Travel awards to help defray some of the costs for students were given to N. Jourdain, R. Hodges, H. Kim, S. Lavender, M. Lenard, J. Malmstadt, K. Sheitlin, A. Suzuki-Parker, E. Vincent, A. Werner. The talks are being made available here.

Plans are to have Springer publish an edited book of the proceedings.

Plans are underway to hold the 3rd International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change in 2011 on the spectacularly beautiful island of Santorini.

Follow the Summit

The 2nd International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change takes place in Corfu starting next Monday. We will archive podcasts of the talks here. The speaker list includes:

June 1
Session 1: M Chenoweth, K Walsh, JL McBride, F Chauvin, R Romero
Session 2: JB Elsner, JD Woodruff, AV Fedorov, K Oouchi

June 2
Session 3: RE Hart, B Soden, ME Mann, A Khain, J Done
Session 4: GJ Holland, YM Tourre, JP Kossin, S Gentile

June 3
Session 5: K Emanuel, SL Lavender, D Liu, B Owens, C Liu
Session 6: J Nott, C Welker, A Osso, AS Daloz

June 4
Session 7: AA Tsonis, K Scheitlin, DJ Vimont, C Wang, J Rumpf
Session 8: PS Chu, R Kumar, S Rahmstorf, MR Lowry

Prelude to the 2nd Summit on Hurricanes & Climate Change, Corfu, Greece

Proceedings of the 1st International Summit on Hurricanes & Climate Change

Springer has announced the availability of a proceedings volume of the 1st International Summit on Hurricanes and Climate Change titled: Hurricanes and Climate Change edited by myself and Thomas Jagger. The volume is available from Springer.

A 4-day international summit on hurricanes and climate change took place in 2007 to discuss and debate various scientific issues related to this important topic. There were 77 attendees from 18 different countries who participated in the summit.

This volume is a sample collection of papers from talks that were presented. The chapters are organized around the broad hurricane-climate themes of empirical evidence, statistical methods, and numerical models. A major focus of the conference was the importance of statistical models for understanding how hurricane activity is changing and may change in the future. Emphasis was also placed on evidence of low-frequency swings in hurricane activity using historical and geological records. Results from various high-resolution numerical models, including a 20-km mesh model, were consistent in showing stronger hurricanes in a warmer future. Most numerical models indicate an overall decrease in the number of storms attributable to greater atmospheric stability and to a decrease in vertical mass flux.

The volume draws from an international community of scholars in the field of hurricane climate science. The science addresses a variety of perspectives ranging from the micro-physics of lightning to geological evidence of prehistoric storminess.

2nd International Summit on Hurricanes & Climate Change

Over the past several years the topic of hurricanes and climate change has received considerable attention by scientists, the insurance industry, and the media. Building on the successful inaugural summit on the topic of hurricanes and climate change held during the spring of 2007, we are organizing the second summit scheduled for May 31-Jun 5, 2009 in Corfu, Greece. The purpose is to bring together leading academics and researchers on various sides of the debate and from all over the world to discuss new research and express opinions about what is happening and what might happen in the future with regard to regional and global hurricane (tropical cyclone) activity. The goals are to address what research is needed to advance the science of hurricane climate and to provide a venue for encouraging a lively, spirited, and sustained exchange of ideas.

Recent research shows that tropical cyclones are more powerful than in the past with the most dramatic increases occurring over the North Atlantic and for the strongest hurricanes (Elsner et al. 2008). Although such increases are correlated with warming oceans and are consistent with the thermodynamic theory of hurricane intensity, there remains doubt about the interpretation, integrity, and meaning of these results. Thus we plan to invite leading scientists to present their latest research and participate in discussions on this topic. Invited speakers will be required to stay for the duration of the summit (4 days). All sessions will be plenary. An important part of the summit will be follow-up discussions during coffee breaks and meals to exchange opinions and ideas. We anticipate inviting 15-20 scientists and we expect between 80-100 participants (we had 75 participants for the 2007 Summit).

Keynote speakers: Greg Holland, NCAR; Jim Kossin, UW-Madison; Kerry Emanual, MIT, Robert Hart, Florida State University.

Topic keywords include: hurricane & climate theory; historical, paleo & modern data; empirical, statistical & dynamical models; intensity, frequency, size, paths, landfalls & rainfall, damage & losses; trends & cycles; hurricanes as a response to climate & hurricanes as forcing for climate. The intellectual merit of the summit is the likelihood of a significant advance in our understanding of climate processes associated with tropical cyclone activity. The broader impacts will be a better understanding of the future hurricane threat to the United States, Caribbean, Japan and elsewhere.

To register for the Summit click here.

• Elsner, J. B., J. P. Kossin, and T. H. Jagger, 2008: The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones, Nature, 455, 92-95.