Friday, November 14, 2008
Over the past several years the topic of hurricanes and climate change has received considerable attention by scientists, the insurance industry, and the media. Building on the successful inaugural summit on the topic of hurricanes and climate change held during the spring of 2007, we are organizing the second summit scheduled for May 31-Jun 5, 2009 in Corfu, Greece. The purpose is to bring together leading academics and researchers on various sides of the debate and from all over the world to discuss new research and express opinions about what is happening and what might happen in the future with regard to regional and global hurricane (tropical cyclone) activity. The goals are to address what research is needed to advance the science of hurricane climate and to provide a venue for encouraging a lively, spirited, and sustained exchange of ideas.
Recent research shows that tropical cyclones are more powerful than in the past with the most dramatic increases occurring over the North Atlantic and for the strongest hurricanes (Elsner et al. 2008). Although such increases are correlated with warming oceans and are consistent with the thermodynamic theory of hurricane intensity, there remains doubt about the interpretation, integrity, and meaning of these results. Thus we plan to invite leading scientists to present their latest research and participate in discussions on this topic. Invited speakers will be required to stay for the duration of the summit (4 days). All sessions will be plenary. An important part of the summit will be follow-up discussions during coffee breaks and meals to exchange opinions and ideas. We anticipate inviting 15-20 scientists and we expect between 80-100 participants (we had 75 participants for the 2007 Summit).
Keynote speakers: Greg Holland, NCAR; Jim Kossin, UW-Madison; Kerry Emanual, MIT, Robert Hart, Florida State University.
Topic keywords include: hurricane & climate theory; historical, paleo & modern data; empirical, statistical & dynamical models; intensity, frequency, size, paths, landfalls & rainfall, damage & losses; trends & cycles; hurricanes as a response to climate & hurricanes as forcing for climate. The intellectual merit of the summit is the likelihood of a significant advance in our understanding of climate processes associated with tropical cyclone activity. The broader impacts will be a better understanding of the future hurricane threat to the United States, Caribbean, Japan and elsewhere.
To register for the Summit click here.
- Elsner, J. B., J. P. Kossin, and T. H. Jagger, 2008: The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones, Nature, 455, 92-95.