Friday, April 30, 2010

Frequency and Intensity Changes

Today 20% of the strongest cyclones exceed 49 m/s on average globally. With a 1C rise in SST, 20% of the strongest cyclones could exceed 51 m/s according to Elsner et al. (2008). Thus the 80th percentile increases from 49 to 51 m/s. Today, on average, 17 cyclones/yr exceed 49 m/s and 13 exceed 51 m/s. If 51 m/s is the new 80th percentile (after a 1C warming) then, without a change in the overall number of cyclones, 13 becomes 17.