Saturday, July 09, 2011
Statistical models of regional and clustered tropical cyclone (TC) activity are being developed and tested. High resolution and detailed microphysical models are capable of physically realistic models of TC behavior. General circulation models are still poor at resolving the frequency and intensity of TCs on the inter-annual time scale. There seems to be little, if any, correlation between the skill at forecasting TC frequency and model resolution. Maximum potential intensity (MPI) theory is improved by considering slantwise convection. The MPI theory continues to be important in explaining TC activity, especially in the North Atlantic. Paleotempestology is maturing as a discipline and important new results about basin-wide and global TC activity will likely ensue. New insights about historical hurricanes are possible using synoptic analysis on reanalysis data and weather prediction models. We will convene again in 2013.